Corn Yield Update: Lower Forecast but Still a Record
Overall, corn conditions remain well above average for the U.S. and for most of the top-producing states. Iowa continues to be the garden state with exceptionally high ratings.
With much of the U.S. corn crop in the early stages of silking, recent weather in the coming 10-20 days across the U.S. are key.
FBN’s second model-based assessment of the season for U.S. corn yield puts the crop at 178.4 bushels per acre, down from the 179.5 bushels forecasted previously.
That’s still in line with USDA’s latest forecast of 178.5 bushels per acre and would represent a new record high on a previous record of 176.6 in 2017.
Variables included were yield trend, USDA crop condition ratings, temperature and precipitation, and satellite imagery. Weather in the coming two weeks will be key for corn yields. The current forecast is for an easing of the recent heat in the Midwest. But uncertainty around the weather forecast is the largest uncertainty in the yield forecast at this stage.
Compared to the corn yield forecast from two weeks ago, reductions were made for Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio and South Dakota. Increases were made for Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota. Satellite imagery suggested crops in Ohio and North Dakota are significantly delayed in terms of growth at this point while Iowa and Minnesota are leading in growth development.
FBN's take on what it means for the farmer
While the corn yield has been downgraded from the previous expectation, we are still seeing a record yield potential with ample corn supplies and a crop near 15 billion bushels. This is expected to keep pressure on the corn futures market. Producers are advised to make moves when recommended to potentially minimize price risk to the downside.
Want access to more insights like this?
This article is excerpted from our Market Intelligence newsletter, delivered weekly to FBN Market Advisory members. With FBN Market Advisory, you'll receive truly personalized tools and reports to support your grain marketing efforts. Get access to market news, straightforward marketing recommendations, basis trend insights and weather reports—all relevant to your operation and geographic location.
Copyright © 2020 FBN BR LLC. All rights Reserved. FBN Market Intelligence is distributed by FBN BR LLC. Contact 877-472-4607 for more information. For the purposes of quality assurance and compliance, phone calls to and from FBN BR LLC may be recorded.
We do not guarantee customers will receive specific benefits or value from participating in FBN BR LLC; results will vary. The data in this article is being supplied as a courtesy by FBN BR LLC. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial and may not be suitable for all investors. All information, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by FBN BR LLC shall be construed as a solicitation. FBN BR LLC does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. This article contains information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by FBN BR LLC. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Disclaimer: Futures and Option trading involves substantial risk, and may not be suitable for everyone. Trading should only be done with true risk capital. Past performance, either actual or hypothetical, is not necessarily indicative of future results.