Grain Market Update Week Ending 3-9-2018

Grain Marketing

Futures

  • Friday selloff puts soybeans down 32 cents on the week, corn holds on for 6-cent gain
  • USDA pegs Argentina soybeans at 47 MMT and corn crop of 36 MMT. But after the report the Buenos Aires Exchange pegged the crops at 42 MMT for soy and 34 MMT for corn.
  • USDA got aggressive on its US demand forecasts, bolstering ethanol by 50 MB and ramping up US exports by 175 MB. These moves slashed carryout to 2,127 MB from 2,352 MB.
  • Weekly bean sales totaled 2.5 MMT, the best week since September.  
  • Soybeans off this week on the prospect of Chinese retaliation over US steel tariffs.

Basis

  • Grain basis stagnates in the U.S. interior but finds support at export origins.
  • High water along rivers pushes barge rates higher contributing to river basis stagnation.  

 

USDA slashes US corn carryout. Thursday’s (March 8) report caught the trade by surprise as USDA raised US corn exports by 175 MB and ethanol by 50 MB. That 225 MB cut in ending stocks is the largest ever by USDA in their March report, nearly doubling the previous largest drop of a 125 MB in 1986. This gets stocks to 2.1 billion bushels, while only 6 months ago we were staring at a 2.5 billion bushel carryout. Exports continue to be rock solid with this week showing 71 MB in new business. Even with USDA’s big jump in its annual export forecast, we still on track to reach the 10-yr average  of 2,225 MB by year-end. Export demand should continue to be strong with world feed wheat and barley prices shooting higher, and South America at a premium to US origins. 

US_corn_basis_change_2018-03-02_to_2018-03-09_map US_soy_basis_change_2018-03-02_to_2018-03-09_map

 

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