Grain Markets Update Week Ending 1-12-2018

Grain Marketing

Market Overview:

Grains were lower this week as USDA’s much anticipated report on Friday helping sink some of the complex more heading into the weekend. On the week, corn was off 5, soybeans were down 10, and the wheat complex giving up 10 in Chicago, 11 in Kansas City and 14 in Minneapolis.

USDA issued final production numbers for the 2017 crops increasing corn yield to a record 176.6 but this gain was partially offset by a 400,000 acre slip in harvested acreage. For beans, the yield was lowered to 49.1 vs 49.5 previously. But demand side data continues to prove unimpressive with USDA finally coming to terms with the lack of export interest, causing them to slash their export projections on the year to 2,160 MB off 65 MB from their Dec forecast. The net result was soy carryout climbed from 445 MB last month to 470 MB. For corn, old-crop ending stocks were nudged higher to 2,477 MB versus 2,437 MB

The big shock in Friday’s data was the winter wheat seedings data. Going into the report the trade expected a 1.0 to 1.5 million acre reduction in wheat acres compared to last year, but USDA estimated the acres virtually unchanged. There was a shift in acres as SRW acres climbed while SRW acres fell. The silver lining on this could be fewer than expected corn/bean acres next spring as analysts thought wheat abandonment to support corn/bean acres.

 

National Cash Market:

In the cash market it was a pretty quiet week for basis moves with corn up a penny on the week while beans moved 2 cents higher.

Winter weather continues to create some isolated opportunities as some buyers work to keep pipeline supplies current. For beans, river terminals along the MS River this week were mostly weaker but for corn areas to the south of St. Louis tended to bid higher on basis. Export drivers were non-existent this week as the Gulf was unchanged for bean basis but eked out a meager 2-cent gain.

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End-user markets to processing plants found a bit more upside with corn & bean plants in the Western stretches of the grain belt bidding a bit more aggressively than last week. FBN Crop Marketing™ was able to take advantage of it this week helping get a push into a Nebraska facility for quick-ship delivery of corn for its members.

Want to participate in our push offer program and capture a better basis opportunity in your area? Text "PUSH" to (605) 215-5274 today!

The cash wheat market continues to bid up for premium protein delivery. Spreads between 11 and 11.5% protein wheat are running about 50 cents a bushel in the KS area reflecting the tight supplies of good quality wheat.

 


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