Heavy Rain Leads to Thoughts of 1993

It’s been a wet 30 days. In fact, in some areas of the Corn Belt it’s been one of the wettest 30-day periods in 31 years, which covers the flood year of 1993. Many sections of Iowa have seen more than 10 inches of rain in the last 30-day stretch. Along with potential production issues, swelling rivers could cause an already bad basis environment to get worse if barge restrictions hit at harvest.

precipitation by crop reporting district

So far, the market has shrugged it off. Also, looking ahead, weather patterns should turn drier. But if those forecasts start to turn wetter, and we see more heavy doses of precipitation, it could be a catalyst for lifting prices into harvest.

What’s the Weather Outlook?

  • An active and much cooler pattern has set in across key crop areas this week, in association with a slow-moving cold front and remnants from Tropical Storm Gordon, which has been tracking across the southwestern Midwest over the last couple of days. Cooler than normal temperatures will dominate the Midwest among wetness to the south and tranquil conditions under high pressure for the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.

  • Heavy rainfall in the southern Midwest and Mississippi Delta region could put a damper on early harvest prospects but does not yet imply major risks on crop production. Periodic dry conditions across the northern Plains and far southern reaches of Canada should enable wheat harvest to continue and possibly conclude for some.

  • A return to southwesterly flow across the central U.S. will rush temperatures back to well above normal for the 6-10 day time period, along with largely drier than normal conditions. This pattern shift should allow for crops to dry down after the deluge of rainfall in recent weeks for many areas of the Midwest. While corn and soybean progress has been unusually fast this season, harvest is still at least a couple of weeks away considering recent rainfall.

GFS U.S. Weather Forecast (Deviation from Normal)

weather forecast 2018 corn soybeans wheat

weather maps and forecast model temperatures


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